A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
